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Journal of Sports Economics
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Bettor Misperceptions in the NBA

The Overbetting of Large Favorites and the "Hot Hand"

Rodney J. Paul

St. Bonaventure University

Andrew P. Weinbach

Armstrong Atlantic State University

Systematic bettor misperceptions are found in the NBA point spread gambling market for the seasons of 1995-1996 to 2001-2002. Evidence of the overbetting of favorites is found, with a strategy of betting big underdogs rejecting the null of a fair bet. Betting big home underdogs not only rejects a fair bet but is also shown to reject the null of no profitability. In addition, betting against winning streaks, as first suggested in the "hot-hand" article of Camerer and later tested by Brown and Sauer, is also shown to be profitable.

Key Words: efficient markets • gambling • sports

Journal of Sports Economics, Vol. 6, No. 4, 390-400 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/1527002504266861
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