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Journal of Sports Economics
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Research Notes

Expectations and Voting in the NCAA Football Polls

The Wisdom of Point Spread Markets

Rodney J. Paul

St. Bonaventure University

Andrew P. Weinbach

Coastal Carolina University

Patrick Coate

University of Dayton

A week-to-week voting model for college football using voting points from the ESPN/USA Today and Associated Press polls is specified. The point spread differential, the score differential of the most recent game minus the point spread, is shown to have a positive and highly significant effect on votes in both polls. A team that covers the point spread will receive an increase in votes in both polls. A team that wins but does not cover the point spread will lose votes. This result shows the role of expectations in this market. If a team performs better than expected, it will receive more votes in the polls and possibly move up in the rankings. Television coverage is also examined, and voter reaction to team performance is found to be greater for those games that are televised, which could be due to the television exposure itself or the fact that televised coverage is a proxy for important games.

Key Words: efficient markets • sports • voting

This version was published on August 1, 2007

Journal of Sports Economics, Vol. 8, No. 4, 412-424 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/1527002506287696
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