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Consistency on the PGA Tour

University of Southern Mississippi

Consistency is sought after by professional golfers and commended by analysts, but tournament theory predicts that inconsistency is beneficial when the reward scheme is top heavy. Simulating a typical tournament and adjusting each player's standard deviation, the author finds that all players earn more prize money and win more tournaments when they are less consistent—even with a slightly worse average score. Players are found to have some control over the variability of their scores: playing safer with a substantial lead and playing riskier when in danger of missing the cut. Inconsistency is not appreciated, but it is rewarding.

Key Words: consistency • risk • golf • tournament theory

This version was published on October 1, 2008

Journal of Sports Economics, Vol. 9, No. 5, 504-519 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/1527002507313741


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